Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
